سناریوهای بهینه برای بهبود تاب‌آوری زیست‌محیطی شهرهای ساحلی با رویکرد آینده‌نگری مطالعه‌ی موردی: شهر ساحلی دیر

نوع مقاله : مقاله علمی پژوهشی

نویسندگان

گروه جغرافیا و برنامه‌ریزی شهری، دانشکده ادبیات و علوم انسانی، دانشگاه شهید چمران اهواز، اهواز، ایران

چکیده

افزایش روزافزون جمعیت و تمرکز سرمایه‌های متنوع اقتصادی در شهرهای ساحلی بدون در نظر گرفتن توان محیطی این مناطق، سبب شده است تا این شهرها به‌طور گسترده تحت تأثیر انواع مخاطرات طبیعی و غیرطبیعی قرار گیرند و اکوسیستم‌های آن‌ها وضعیتی ناپایدار و آینده پیچیده و مبهم داشته باشند. از طرفی تاب‌آوری در ابعاد مختلف به‌عنوان گفتمان غالب محافل علمی جهت مقابله با تهدیدهای حال و آینده جوامع انسانی مانند شهرها شناخته می‌شود و در سال‌های اخیر به‌منظور بهبود آن به‌ویژه در مناطق ساحلی تلاش‌های گسترده‌ای در ابعاد جهانی و محلی صورت گرفته است. بر این اساس این پژوهش باهدف تعیین سناریوهای بهینه در جهت بهبود تاب‌آوری زیست‌محیطی شهرهای ساحلی و به روش توصیفی- تحلیلی انجام‌شده است. روش گردآوری داده‌ها به‌صورت کیفی با استفاده از مصاحبه و تشکیل پنل دلفی با حضور 35 نفر از کارشناسان و خبرگان مرتبط با موضوع انجام شد. به‌منظور تعیین عوامل کلیدی تأثیرگذار و تأثیرپذیر بر تاب‌آوری زیست‌محیطی و تجزیه‌وتحلیل داده‌ها از نرم‌افزار میک مک و برای استخراج و ارائه سناریو بهینه نیز از نرم‌افزار سناریو ویزارد بر اساس نظر کارشناسان و مدیران شهری و خبرگان مسائل زیست‌محیطی ساحلی استفاده‌شده است. بر اساس نتایج به‌دست‌آمده تأثیرگذارترین عامل بر تاب‌آوری زیست‌محیطی شهرهای ساحلی عبارت‌اند از کاهش توسعه بر مبنای صنایع آلاینده محیطی و حفاظت از تنوع زیستی موجود در این مناطق و همچنین از بین سناریوهای اخراج شده، سناریو شماره 2 با مطلوبیت همه وضعیت‌های مربوط به عوامل پیشران در آن به‌عنوان سناریو بهینه شناخته شد و درنهایت به‌منظور دستیابی به اهداف پژوهش و بهبود تاب‌آوری زیست‌محیطی این شهرها، پیشنهادهای لازم بر ارائه گردید.

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

The optimal scenario for improving environmental resilience of coastal cities with a foresight approach Case study: Dayyer coastal city

نویسندگان [English]

  • masoud Safaei Poor
  • aghil gankhaki
SCU
چکیده [English]

The increase in population and more concentration of diverse economic capital in coastal cities have caused these cities to be widely affected by various natural and unnatural hazards and their ecosystems have a vague future. On the other hand, resilience in various dimensions is known as the dominant discourse of scientific circles to deal with the present and future threats of human societies such as cities. Accordingly, this study has been conducted with the aim of improving environmental resilience in coastal cities with a futuristic approach and determining optimal scenarios in a descriptive-analytical method. In this study, in order to determine the key factors affecting environmental resilience and use data analysis, Mic Mac software was used, and to extract and present the optimal scenario, the wizard scenario software was used based on the opinion of experts and urban managers and also coastal environmental activists in NGOs. According to the results, the most influential factors on the environmental resilience of coastal cities are the "reduction of development based on environmental polluting industries" and the "protection of biodiversity in these areas". Also, among the extracted 160 scenarios, Scenario No. 2 was recognized as the optimal scenario with the desirability of all situations related to the driving factors in it, and finally, in order to achieve the research objectives, the necessary suggestions were presented based on this scenario.
Also, among the extracted 160 scenarios, Scenario No. 2 was recognized as the optimal scenario with the desirability of all situations related to the driving factors in it, and finally, in order to achieve the research objectives, the necessary suggestions were presented based on this scenario.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Environmental Resilience
  • Foresight
  • Scenario writing
  • Coastal City of Dayyer
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