عنوان مقاله [English]
In the present study, in order to monitor and predict the effect of climate change on the bioclimatic design pattern, a comparative study was conducted between two different geographic regions, Mashhad, in the Mediterranean region and Madrid in Spain in Europe with a similar cold desert climate type. In this study, in order to model the bioclimatic design, there have been used two time sets of climatic data. The base data in this paper are from 1990 to 2010 and extracted from the Meteororm software database. In order to evaluate downscaling and preliminary forecasting of the climate data of some components including radiation, temperature, wind speed, and relative humidity of the atmosphere general circulation model outputs HadCM3, there is used CCWorldWeatherGen software. In this software, in order to investigate the downscaling of large outputs of the atmosphere general circulation model GCM, there is used MORPHING Method.
The outcomes of the present study showed that the average annual temperature for the 2050s and 2080s will increase by 0.3 and 1.7 C° for Mashhad and 1.6 and 3.2 C° for Madrid and, on the other hand, the relative humidity changes of the 2050s and 2080s, compared to base period, will be 6.75 and 7 percent for Mashhad, and 11.08 and 11.17 percent for Madrid. Totally, the consequent of climate changes in future decades will lead to a change in the bioclimatic design patterns of building for both studied cities. In general, for both areas of study, due to future climate changes, it is necessary to reduce the consumption level of energy by providing bioclimatic design strategies in the heating sector. But for bioclimatic strategies in cooling sector, the need for these strategies in Madrid is significant, but in Mashhad, only sunshade for windows is significant and the use of other cooling strategies has a decreasing trend.