دانشگاه گلستان مجله آمایش جغرافیایی فضا 2538-5739 15 4 2025 12 22 Foresight and Development Scenarios Based on Ecosystem Services in Mangrove Forests of ‌Iran آینده‌نگاری و تدوین سناریوهای توسعه مبتنی بر خدمات اکوسیستمی ‌ در جنگل‌های مانگرو ایران 21 43 239655 10.30488/gps.2025.532119.3852 FA پروانه سبحانی گروه محیط‌زیست، دانشکده منابع طبیعی، دانشگاه لرستان، خرم‌آباد، ایران 0000-0001-9878-3768 افشین دانه کار گروه محیط‌زیست، دانشکده منابع طبیعی، دانشگاه تهران، کرج، ایران 0000-0003-0641-9286 Journal Article 2025 07 05 A B S T R A C T To support effective planning and management of Iran’s mangrove forests, this study explores a range of conceivable and probable futures while identifying the key driving forces, macro-trends, and uncertainties shaping these ecosystems. The most influential drivers and macro-trends were identified through a review of prior research and theoretical frameworks, resulting in a structured list comprising five criteria, twelve sub-criteria, and fifty-five indicators. The study sample consisted of fifteen experts and specialists with relevant professional expertise. Data were analyzed using structural analysis and scenario-building techniques implemented through the MicMac and Scenario Wizard software packages. The results show that, among the criteria, the ecological dimension had the highest importance coefficient; among the sub-criteria, employment ranked highest; and among the indicators, the strongest influence was attributed to the “high dependence of livelihoods on forest resources.” Scenario outcomes for Iran’s mangrove forests suggest that 62% represent a desirable or ideal environmental state, 28% an intermediate and static condition, and 10% a critical or degraded state. Within the broader “futures cone,” the macro-scenarios correspond to three categories: “preferred futures” (first group), “likely futures” (second group), and “unreasonable futures” (third group), each with probabilities inferred from the analysis. The analyses highlight that improving ecosystem services in Iran’s mangrove forests depends on the commitment of planners and policymakers to conserve and enhance these natural habitats, safeguard their biological value, and strengthen the productivity of ecosystem services. Extended Abstract Introduction Because of their distinctive biological characteristics, mangrove forests have long been ‌recognized as highly sensitive ecosystems. Situated in dynamic coastal environments, they have ‌evolved remarkable adaptive strategies to withstand extreme ecological conditions. These ‌unique adaptations have attracted sustained attention from international conservation ‌organizations, which consistently classify mangroves as priority protected habitats.‌ Effective planning and management of Iran’s mangrove forests require a precise understanding ‌of the ecosystem services they generate and the spatial scales at which these services are ‌produced, so that supply can be balanced with the demands of society. Against this backdrop, ‌the present study examines the multiple plausible futures of Iran’s mangrove ecosystems by ‌identifying the critical driving forces, macro-trends, and uncertainties that shape their trajectory.‌ Methodology This research is applied in purpose and adopts an analytical–exploratory approach in both ‌nature and method. To identify the key driving forces, macro-trends, and uncertainties, a ‌comprehensive list was developed from prior research and theoretical studies, encompassing ‌five criteria, twelve sub-criteria, and fifty-five indicators. The study sample comprised fifteen ‌respondents, all of whom were experts and specialists with relevant professional expertise. Data ‌were analyzed using structural analysis and scenario-building techniques, implemented through ‌the MicMac and Scenario Wizard software packages. Results and discussion The results indicate that, among the criteria, the ecological dimension had the highest ‌importance coefficient; among the sub-criteria, employment ranked highest; and among the ‌indicators, the strongest influence was attributed to the “high dependence of livelihoods on ‌forest resources.” Scenario outcomes for Iran’s mangrove forests suggest that 62% represent a ‌desirable or ideal environmental state, 28% an intermediate and static condition, and 10% a ‌critical or degraded state.‌ Within the broader “futures cone,” the macro-scenarios fall into three categories: “preferred ‌futures” (first group), “likely futures” (second group), and “unreasonable futures” (third group), ‌with the probability of each inferred from the analysis. The findings further underscore that ‌improving ecosystem services in Iran’s mangrove forests depends on the commitment of ‌planners and policymakers to conserve and enhance these habitats, safeguard their biological ‌value, and strengthen the overall productivity of ecosystem services. Conclusion The findings suggest that identifying and analyzing the driving forces, macro-trends, and ‌uncertainties in Iran’s mangrove forests can provide valuable insights for implementing ‌effective management strategies in mangrove ecosystems elsewhere. Moreover, the results of ‌this analysis can inform management approaches that support effective protection and planning ‌in response to expanding human activities, associated uncertainties, and their environmental ‌consequences in these sensitive habitats. Since these forests constitute a network of biologically ‌sensitive areas and valuable resources, it is essential to develop policies and tools that mitigate ‌the impacts of overexploitation and uncontrolled human development. Furthermore, ‌conservation planning should prioritize not only preventing habitat degradation but also ‌managing Iran’s mangrove ecosystems to ensure their protection, restoration, and long-term ‌resilience.‌ Funding There is funding support. Authors’ Contribution Authors contributed equally to the conceptualization and writing of the article. All of the authors approved thecontent of the manuscript and agreed on all aspects of the work declaration of competing interest none. Conflict of Interest Authors declared no conflict of interest. Acknowledgments We are grateful to all the scientific consultants of this paper. با هدف برنامه‌ریزی و مدیریت صحیح در جنگل‌های مانگرو کشور به تبییـن آینده‌های گوناگون متصـور و محتمل، شناسایی نیروهای پیشران، کلان‌روندها و عدم قطعیت‌ها در این رویشگاه‌های طبیعی پرداخته شد. به‌منظور شناسایی عمده‌ترین نیروهای پیشران و کلان‌روندها فهرستی بر اساس پیشینه تحقیق و مطالعات نظری شامل 5 معیار، 12 زیر معیار و 55 شاخص تهیه گردید. جامعه آماری پرسش‌شوندگان 15 نفر بوده، که از بین کارشناسان و خبرگان با تخصص‌های مرتبط انتخاب شدند. تجزیه‌وتحلیل داده‌ها از طریق روش‌های تحلیل ساختاری و سناریو نگاری در نرم‌افزارهای MicMac و Scenario Wizard صورت گرفت. مطابق نتایج، در بین معیارها بیشترین ضریب اهمیت مربوط به معیار "اکولوژیک"، در بین زیرمعیارها مربوط به " اشتغال" و در بین شاخص‌ها به "وابستگی زیاد معیشت به جنگل" اختصاص‌یافته است. نتایج سناریوهای گروه‌های اول تا سوم به ترتیب بیان‌کننده وضعیت مطلوب و ایده‌آل محیط‌زیست (62 درصد)، وضعیت بینابین و ایستا (28 درصد) و وضعیت بحرانی محیط‌زیست (10 درصد) است. علاوه بر این، نتایج سناریوهای کلان ‌آینده‌ در مخروط آینده شامل "آینده‌های مرجح" (سناریوی گروه اول)، "آینده‌های محتمل" (سناریوی گروه دوم) و "آینده‌های نامعقول" (سناریوهای گروه سوم) است که احتمال وقوع هر یک با توجه به نتایج به‌دست‌آمده قابل پیش‌بینی است. بر اساس نتایج به‌دست‌آمده، بهبود وضعیت خدمات اکوسیستمی در جنگل‌های مانگرو ایران مستلزم عملکرد برنامه‌ریزان و مسئولان در حفظ و حمایت از رویشگاه‌های طبیعی در این محدوده است، به‌گونه‌ای که در راستای حفظ منابع با ارزش زیستی آن تلاش نمایند و وضعیت بهره‌وری از خدمات اکوسیستمی در این منطقه را بهبود بخشند.

https://gps.gu.ac.ir/article_239655_1af1931ce15ed59f80f8e7ab3d9e62ba.pdf