Geographical planning of space quarterly journal

Geographical planning of space quarterly journal

The optimal scenario for improving environmental resilience of coastal cities with a foresight approach Case study: Dayyer coastal city

Document Type : Research Paper

Authors
masoud Safaei Poor
aghil gankhaki
Department of Geography and Urban Planning, Faculty of Literature and Human Sciences, Shahid Chamran University of Ahvaz, Ahvaz, Iran
10.30488/gps.2021.292202.3423
Abstract
The increase in population and more concentration of diverse economic capital in coastal cities have caused these cities to be widely affected by various natural and unnatural hazards and their ecosystems have a vague future. On the other hand, resilience in various dimensions is known as the dominant discourse of scientific circles to deal with the present and future threats of human societies such as cities. Accordingly, this study has been conducted with the aim of improving environmental resilience in coastal cities with a futuristic approach and determining optimal scenarios in a descriptive-analytical method. In this study, in order to determine the key factors affecting environmental resilience and use data analysis, Mic Mac software was used, and to extract and present the optimal scenario, the wizard scenario software was used based on the opinion of experts and urban managers and also coastal environmental activists in NGOs. According to the results, the most influential factors on the environmental resilience of coastal cities are the "reduction of development based on environmental polluting industries" and the "protection of biodiversity in these areas". Also, among the extracted 160 scenarios, Scenario No. 2 was recognized as the optimal scenario with the desirability of all situations related to the driving factors in it, and finally, in order to achieve the research objectives, the necessary suggestions were presented based on this scenario.
Also, among the extracted 160 scenarios, Scenario No. 2 was recognized as the optimal scenario with the desirability of all situations related to the driving factors in it, and finally, in order to achieve the research objectives, the necessary suggestions were presented based on this scenario.
Keywords
Environmental Resilience
Foresight
Scenario writing
Coastal City of Dayyer
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Geographical planning of space quarterly journal
Volume 12, Issue 2
Summer 2022
Pages 17-29