Geographical planning of space quarterly journal

Geographical planning of space quarterly journal

Analysis and Modeling of Maximum Temperature Variability in Northern Iran’s Climatic Regions Using HadGEM and GFDL-ESM4 Models

Document Type : Research Paper

Authors
Roghayeh Maleki Meresht
Bromand Salahi
Department of Physical Geography, Faculty of Social Sciences, University of Mohaghegh Ardabili, Ardabil, Iran
10.30488/gps.2025.517345.3839
Abstract
This study analyzes and models maximum temperature variability across the diverse climatic regions of northern Iran. In the first stage, long-term trends in maximum temperature from 1994 to 2023 were examined using the Mann–Kendall test. Subsequently, maximum temperatures for the baseline period (1980–2010) were simulated with the LARS-WG weather generator and evaluated using statistical metrics including RMSE and MAPE. Under the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 climate scenarios, the GFDL-ESM4 and HadGEM3-GC31-LL general circulation models were employed to project maximum temperature changes for 2041–2060. Spatial variability between the baseline and projected periods was mapped using ArcGIS software. The Mann–Kendall test results indicated that at all stations, the U and U′ curves intersected in the positive region, reflecting an upward trend in annual maximum temperatures over the past three decades. This trend was not statistically significant at Sanandaj, Ardabil, and Qazvin, but reached significance at the 99% confidence level at the other stations. Modeling results suggest a consistent increase in maximum temperatures across both scenarios and models for the coming two decades. The greatest increases are projected for the colder seasons, from late autumn through early spring, with the most pronounced warming in the mountainous regions of northwestern Iran. Among the tested models, GFDL-ESM4 exhibited the lowest error under the SSP2-4.5 scenario, making it the most reliable for analysis. This model projects a temperature increase of 1.0–2.2 °C, providing a more realistic representation of future thermal conditions across the climatic zones of northern Iran. These findings underscore the substantial role of northern Iran’s climatic regions in shaping prospective climate change dynamics
Keywords
Maximum Temperature
Climate Modeling
Northern Iran.

Subjects

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Geographical planning of space quarterly journal
Volume 15, Issue 3
Autumn 2026
Pages 101-119