Geographical planning of space quarterly journal

Geographical planning of space quarterly journal

Identifying Key Drivers of Spatial Resilience in Climate-Vulnerable Rural Settlements: A case study of Chabahar County

Document Type : Research Paper

Author
Ali Mokhtari Karchegani
Department of Spatial Planning, International Universityof Chabahar, Chabahar, Iran
10.30488/gps.2026.587885.3913
Abstract
Spatial resilience of rural settlements in arid coastal regions is increasingly influenced by the complex interaction of environmental, institutional, and economic factors. Chabahar region, as one of the strategic areas in southeastern Iran, confronts multiple challenges such as water scarcity, climatic pressures, spatial disparities, and institutional constraints, which create considerable uncertainty regarding the future sustainability of its rural settlements. This study aims to identify the key drivers affecting the spatial resilience of rural settlements in Chabahar and to analyze possible future scenarios. The research adopted a futures studies approach, incorporating structural analysis via the MICMAC method and scenario planning using Scenario Wizard software. In the first stage, 16 key variables were identified through literature review and expert consultation, which were then analyzed via a cross-impact matrix. The results of the MICMAC analysis indicate that governance and institutional support, access to water resources, environmental quality, climate change, and spatial connectivity are the most influential structural drivers shaping the spatial resilience system of the region. Subsequently, five major drivers were selected for scenario analysis, and three possible states were defined for each. The analysis revealed three consistent scenario: resilient integration, stagnant transition, and systemic lock-in. The stagnant transition scenario - current trends with modest infrastructure/governance gains - was deemed most probable for the region. Building spatial resilience in Chabahar thus demands integrated governance, sustainable water management, livelihood diversification, and better rural connectivity. These results provide a useful basis for evidence-based and adaptive forward looking spatial planning and policymaking in vulnerable coastal regions
Keywords
Key Drivers
Spatial Resilience
Spatial Planning
Climate-Vulnerable Rural Settlements
Chabahar County.
Subjects
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Geographical planning of space quarterly journal
Volume 16, Issue 2
Summer 2026
Pages 81-99