Geographical planning of space quarterly journal

Geographical planning of space quarterly journal

Analyzing the Effectiveness of the Urban Prosperity Approach on the Structural Organization of Cities: A case study the New City of Sahand

Document Type : Research Paper

Authors
Hossein Mohammadi Gazijahani 1
Hossein Nazmfar 2
Ali Azar 3
1 Department of Urban Planning, Mara.C., Islamic Azad University, Marand, Iran
2 Department of Geography and Rural Planning, Faculty of Planning and Environmental Sciences, University of Tabriz, Tabriz, Iran
3 Department of Urban Planning and Architecture, Mar.C., Islamic Azad University, Maragheh, Iran
10.30488/gps.2026.585303.3906
Abstract
A B S T R A C T
The rapid growth of new cities in Iran, particularly Sahand as one of the most significant satellite cities of the Tabriz metropolitan area, has been accompanied by considerable challenges in service provision, infrastructure development, employment generation, and quality of life, despite population increases and physical expansion. This study aims to analyze the effectiveness of the urban prosperity approach on the structural organization of the new city of Sahand. The research is applied in purpose, descriptive-analytical in nature, and survey-based in method. The statistical population consists of residents of the new city of Sahand (82,494 individuals). The sample size was determined as 384 participants using the Cochran formula and selected through stratified random sampling. The data collection instrument was a researcher-developed questionnaire based on six dimensions of urban prosperity (productivity, infrastructure development, quality of life, environmental sustainability, equity and social inclusion, and urban governance). The validity and reliability of the instrument were assessed as satisfactory. Data analysis was performed using descriptive statistics and Structural Equation Modeling (SEM) via SmartPLS. The results indicate that the level of urban prosperity in Sahand is suboptimal. Among the six dimensions, only infrastructure development and environmental sustainability demonstrated significant effects on urban prosperity (critical values of 3.02 and 2.65, respectively). The highest level of realization was attributed to infrastructure development (0.608), while the lowest pertained to productivity (0.266). The findings suggest that the new city of Sahand is in the early stages of urban development and requires substantial strengthening in the dimensions of productivity, quality of life (particularly educational and healthcare services), social equity, and urban governance. Furthermore, the localization of urban prosperity indicators in accordance with the specific conditions of new cities in Iran is deemed essential.
Extended Abstract
Introduction
Urban growth, resulting from global population increases and the growing appeal of cities as places of residence for the majority of people, has led to a pronounced tendency toward urbanization, with the global urban population now reaching approximately 4.4 billion. Concurrently, this remarkable surge in urban population poses serious threats to the ecological resources of cities, potentially leading to the limitation of urban amenities and capacities. Transitioning toward sustainable development necessitates the mobilization of various tools, interests, and forces. Integrating sustainability into both public and private policies—including management practices—remains a challenging and complex endeavor.
The urban prosperity initiative represents a novel and fundamental approach for articulating a vision and delineating the pathways for its realization, defined within the overarching paradigm of sustainability and its more specific variant, urban sustainability. This initiative promotes a new model of urbanization on a global scale while remaining adaptable to local conditions, characteristics, and dynamics. It provides a flexible framework for stepwise and hierarchical review and monitoring, grounded in the enhancement of integration and equipped with spatial analysis capabilities. In essence, a prosperous city, through strategic planning and diverse technical approaches, implements urban performance improvement and the realization of a sustainable urban form. Urban prosperity synthesizes the aforementioned approaches into a cohesive framework. The concept of urban prosperity represents an outcome of the movement toward sustainable urban development, introduced by the United Nations to establish an integrated structure for assessing the status of cities worldwide, analyzing challenges, identifying critical issues, and presenting essential priorities based on a scientific framework.
Sahand is one of Iran's new cities that has witnessed significant transformations in recent years due to population growth. Furthermore, according to the plans devised for the future of this city—aimed at absorbing the surplus population of Tabriz to facilitate decentralization from this metropolis—and with the implementation of projects such as the National Housing Action Plan, Mehr Housing, and the Family and Youth Population Support Plan, Sahand will soon become the second most populous city in East Azerbaijan Province, after the metropolis of Tabriz. However, the development of the new city of Sahand, if this rapid growth occurs without proper planning and management, will confront the city with challenges including increased service delivery costs, construction on unsuitable lands, environmental pollution, traffic congestion, inadequate access to various infrastructures and urban facilities, and other related issues. These challenges will exacerbate a range of social, economic, and environmental problems within the city. In this regard, the present study seeks to answer the crucial question of whether the indicators of urban prosperity in the new city of Sahand are in a favorable condition.
The overarching objective of this research is to analyze the effectiveness of the urban prosperity approach on the structural organization of the new city of Sahand. Accordingly, this study aims to address the following primary research question: "What factors have contributed to the formation of the current state of urban prosperity in the new city of Sahand, and what priorities exist for its improvement?"

Methodology
The present study is applied in terms of purpose and descriptive-analytical in nature, employing a survey-based method. The primary approach of the research is quantitative, utilizing Structural Equation Modeling (SEM) to explain the relationships among variables. According to the latest official statistics (2023), the new city of Sahand has a population of 82,494 residents. The sample size for citizens was determined using the Cochran formula for a finite population (with a 95% confidence level, a probability of attribute presence of 0.5, and a precision of 0.05), resulting in 384 participants. The sampling method was stratified based on the eight phases and districts of the new city of Sahand.
The primary data collection instrument was a researcher-developed questionnaire. The initial items were extracted from three main sources: (a) the official indicators of the United Nations Human Settlements Programme (UN-Habitat) across six dimensions of urban prosperity, (b) previous domestic studies (particularly Ahadnejad et al., 2018; Rahsepar Tolu'i et al., 2021; Alavi et al., 2018), and (c) exploratory interviews with local experts. A total of 65 initial items were designed. The validity of the questionnaire was examined at both content and construct levels. Content validity was confirmed through expert judgment and the calculation of the Content Validity Ratio (CVR), while construct validity was verified through confirmatory factor analysis within the framework of Structural Equation Modeling. The reliability of the questionnaire was assessed using three indicators: Cronbach's alpha (0.87 for the total questionnaire and above 0.70 for each dimension), Composite Reliability (CR) (above 0.70 for all variables), and Average Variance Extracted (AVE) (above 0.60 for all variables), all of which indicated satisfactory reliability of the research instrument. Data analysis was conducted at both descriptive and inferential levels using SPSS and SmartPLS software.

Results and Discussion
The findings revealed that among the six dimensions of urban prosperity, only two dimensions—"infrastructure development" (with a coefficient of 0.574 and a critical value of 3.02) and "environmental sustainability" (with a coefficient of 0.499 and a critical value of 2.65)—are in a relatively favorable condition and exert a significant influence on urban prosperity. In contrast, the other four dimensions—namely "productivity" (coefficient 0.232), "quality of life" (coefficient 0.387), "equity and social inclusion" (coefficient 0.303), and "urban governance and rule of law" (coefficient 0.254)—were assessed as being in an unfavorable state and do not have a significant impact on the realization of prosperity in Sahand. Consequently, the structural system of Sahand, in terms of the urban prosperity model, is not in a desirable condition, and the city remains in the early stages of urban development.
Second Hypothesis: It is posited that in order to organize the structure of the new city of Sahand, a balance can be established among different districts with respect to the urban prosperity approach.
The spatial-district analysis of the eight districts revealed significant differences among the various districts of Sahand in terms of urban prosperity indicators. The urban prosperity score fluctuates from District 1 (central) with 0.56 to District 8 (southern) with 0.33, indicating a gap of 0.23 units between the best and worst districts. This disparity is particularly manifested in a "north-south" pattern. However, given that infrastructure development is at a relatively acceptable level across all districts (ranging from 0.46 to 0.72), there exists potential for achieving balance through targeted investment in other dimensions (especially quality of life and employment) in disadvantaged areas. Therefore, the second hypothesis is cautiously confirmed, contingent upon the adoption of a place-based approach and prioritization of the southern districts.
Third Hypothesis: The dimensions of urban prosperity in the new city of Sahand do not conform to the dimensions proposed by the United Nations and require localization.
The research findings demonstrated that the weight and significance of urban prosperity dimensions in the new city of Sahand differ substantially from the standard CPI model proposed by the United Nations Human Settlements Programme (UN-Habitat). In the standard model, the productivity dimension is considered one of the most important dimensions; however, in Sahand, this dimension exhibits the least impact and the lowest level of realization (0.266). Conversely, the infrastructure development dimension, which holds moderate weight in the standard model, has the greatest impact (0.574) and the highest level of realization (0.608) in Sahand. Furthermore, the analysis of expert interviews revealed that four new indigenous indicators—namely "distance from the parent city," "access to intercity transportation," "quality of Mehr housing," and "level of satisfaction with migration"—are essential for measuring prosperity in Iran's new cities, indicators that are not anticipated in the standard UN model. Consequently, the localization of urban prosperity indicators in accordance with the specific conditions of Iran's new cities is an inevitable necessity.

Conclusion
The present study was conducted with the aim of assessing and explaining the status of urban prosperity components in the new city of Sahand, employing a quantitative approach and Structural Equation Modeling. The results indicated that, overall, the level of urban prosperity in this city is not in a favorable condition. Among the six main dimensions—productivity, infrastructure development, quality of life, environmental sustainability, equity and social inclusion, and urban governance and rule of law—only two dimensions, namely infrastructure development and environmental sustainability, exhibited a relatively satisfactory status. Furthermore, hypothesis testing confirmed that only these two dimensions exert a significant influence on the realization of urban prosperity in Sahand, while the remaining dimensions lack meaningful impact. This finding suggests that the new city of Sahand remains in the early stages of urban development and requires substantial strengthening across economic, social, educational, healthcare, and managerial dimensions.
From a theoretical perspective, this research contributes to the enrichment of the literature on new cities in Iran by emphasizing the application of Structural Equation Modeling in measuring urban prosperity. Moreover, by identifying the gap between various dimensions of prosperity, it demonstrates that the uniform approach of the United Nations cannot be applied to all cities without local adaptations. From a practical standpoint, the findings of this study can assist urban managers and planners in prioritizing investments and interventions. Strengthening development infrastructure (particularly cultural infrastructure and electronic services), improving quality of life through the expansion of educational and healthcare centers, reducing social and economic inequalities, and establishing a transparent and participatory governance system are among the key priorities for guiding the new city of Sahand toward urban prosperity.
Based on the results of this study, in order to improve the existing conditions in new cities, with particular emphasis on Sahand, the following recommendations are proposed. As a first step, future research should adopt an analytical-applied approach to meticulously investigate the factors contributing to the inefficiency of the three components of productivity, social justice, and governance systems in new cities. Additionally, conducting systematic comparative studies between new cities and their parent metropolises can significantly contribute to identifying structural and functional gaps and discovering key moderating variables along the path to urban prosperity. Finally, as an undeniable necessity in urban policy-making, the design and development of a localized indicator for measuring urban prosperity—tailored to the demographic, economic, and environmental characteristics specific to Iran's new cities—should be placed as a research priority. This endeavor is proposed as an effective step toward the advancement and enrichment of urban prosperity knowledge.

Funding
There is no funding support.

Authors’ Contribution
Authors contributed equally to the conceptualization and writing of the article. All of the authors approved thecontent of the manuscript and agreed on all aspects of the work declaration of competing interest none.

Conflict of Interest
Authors declared no conflict of interest.

Acknowledgments
We are grateful to all the scientific consultants of this paper.
Keywords
Urban prosperity
Structural organization
New city of Sahand
Structural Equation Modeling
Subjects
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