Document Type : Research Paper
Authors
1
Department of Geography and Spatial Planning, Faculty of Earth Sciences, University of Shahid Beheshti, Tehran, Iran
2
Department of Geography and Urban Planning, Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran, Iran
3
Department of Geography, Yazd University, Yazd, Iran
Abstract
A B S T R A C T
This study aims to analyze the future challenges of urban prosperity in the metropolis of Karaj using the innovative Fuzzy Cognitive Mapping (FCM) method. The research is descriptive-analytical and applied in nature, with data collected through both library and survey methods. Using the Delphi technique, 30 key driving forces were identified within the STEEP framework (social, technological, economic, environmental, and political). Subsequently, with the participation of 15 experts, a fuzzy cognitive map model was designed and analyzed using Mental Modeler software. The findings revealed that the economic dimension, comprising nine driving forces with an average influence score of 8.4 out of 10, plays the most significant role in the future prosperity of Karaj. The final model consisted of 13 elements and 43 relationships, with density (0.27) and complexity (0.84) indices indicating a highly interconnected and complex system of urban challenges. Centrality analysis showed that structural factors such as “class disparity” (P3) and “decline in economic growth” (P1) exerted the greatest influence on the system, while factors like “gender equality” (Geq) and “job–income satisfaction” (In) were the most affected. The results also highlight that infrastructural, managerial, and environmental issues pose serious barriers to achieving urban prosperity. Ultimately, realizing urban prosperity in Karaj requires moving beyond fragmented planning and adopting a systemic, foresight-oriented, and participatory approach focused on addressing structural challenges and strengthening integrated urban governance..
Extended Abstract
Introduction
The innovative concept of urban prosperity, introduced by UN-Habitat as a standardized framework, can serve as a catalyst for achieving sustainable urban development. In recent decades, rapid and widespread urban migration has become increasingly evident. According to the 2016 national census, 74% of Iran’s population now resides in urban areas. This demographic shift has placed immense pressure on urban management to provide adequate services and facilities, resulting in multiple challenges such as socioeconomic inequalities, poor housing quality, insufficient green space, inefficient transportation systems, and various environmental pollutions—all of which contribute to unsustainable urban growth.
In contrast, a prosperous and sustainable city must be healthy, safe, resilient, well-planned, and environmentally green.
Karaj covers an area of 18,000 hectares, of which 405 hectares consist of informal settlements accommodating approximately 95,000 residents—roughly 2.3 times the average population density of other urban areas in Karaj. The city faces serious challenges in urban services and environmental management, particularly in waste management: only 1.5% of waste is separated at source, 27.5% is recycled (wet and dry), and 72.5% is disposed of in landfills.
In the socio-cultural sphere, social security remains a major concern, while citizens face issues such as low per capita access to cultural and social facilities, limited trust in municipal cultural institutions, and weak attachment to public urban spaces.
Without a rational and systematic planning approach, Karaj risks becoming a city that is increasingly difficult to live in. The growing urgency of addressing urban prosperity in Karaj stems from heightened awareness of unsustainable consumption and lifestyle patterns that are neither healthy nor sustainable and, in the long term, threaten the city’s environmental and social resources.
A participatory, rational, and integrated planning approach is therefore essential. Without it, Karaj may soon face severe challenges related to accessibility, density, service provision, and social security. Consequently, this study seeks to analyze the future challenges of urban prosperity in Karaj through the Fuzzy Cognitive Map (FCM) approach, using expert insights and participatory foresight analysis.
Methodology
This study is descriptive–analytical in nature and applied in purpose. Data collection employed both library–documentary and survey methods. To identify the main barriers to urban prosperity in Iran, the Delphi method was utilized. The Delphi panel consisted of 15 experts selected through a purposive non-probabilistic sampling method.
Initially, through a literature review and consideration of urban prosperity dimensions, 29 preliminary indicators were identified as potential barriers to prosperity. These indicators were then evaluated by Delphi participants based on four criteria:
1. Field of academic study
2. Level of education
3. Research experience in urban innovation or urban studies
4. Professional experience in municipal institutions
Fifteen experts participated in the Delphi rounds via online questionnaires. Based on their feedback, the final group of 15 experts was again engaged to complete the Fuzzy Cognitive Map (FCM) matrix using Mental Modeler software, with the aim of identifying key issues and causal relationships among factors.
Results and discussion
The final FCM model comprised 13 elements and 43 interrelationships, indicating a high degree of interdependence and complexity. The model’s density (0.27) and complexity (0.84) indices emphasize the need for a comprehensive and systems-based approach to urban management and planning. Centrality analysis revealed that structural challenges play a pivotal role within the system. Pre-determined factors such as “widening class inequality among citizens” (P3) and “declining economic growth in Karaj” (P1) demonstrated the highest influence across the system. This suggests that without addressing these root causes, efforts to improve other dimensions will likely remain limited and temporary. Conversely, factors such as “gender equality (Geq)” and “job and income satisfaction (In)” exhibited the highest levels of susceptibility, highlighting their sensitivity to systemic changes and identifying them as key indicators for monitoring the overall urban well-being.
Conclusion
In conclusion, achieving urban prosperity in Karaj is an attainable goal, provided that the city moves beyond fragmented and traditional planning perspectives toward a forward-looking, systemic, integrated, and participatory approach. Urban planning for Karaj must address all prosperity dimensions concurrently and equitably—prioritizing the mitigation of structural challenges such as economic inequality and the revival of sustainable economic vitality—while strengthening good urban governance based on transparency, accountability, and integrated management.
By applying the Fuzzy Cognitive Map (FCM) method, this study takes an essential first step toward a deeper understanding of the internal dynamics and barriers within Karaj’s urban system. The findings can serve as both a scientific and practical foundation for policymakers, urban planners, and stakeholders to design intelligent, evidence-based strategies aimed at transforming Karaj into a prosperous, equitable, resilient, and sustainable metropolis for all its residents.
Funding
There is no funding support.
Authors’ Contribution
Authors contributed equally to the conceptualization and writing of the article. All of the authors approved thecontent of the manuscript and agreed on all aspects of the work declaration of competing interest none.
Conflict of Interest
Authors declared no conflict of interest.
Acknowledgments
We are grateful to all the scientific consultants of this paper.
Keywords
