Geographical planning of space quarterly journal

Geographical planning of space quarterly journal

Spatio-Temporal Analysis of Rural Population Distribution in Alborz Province Using Advanced Spatial Autocorrelation Models

Document Type : Research Paper

Authors
jafar mirkatouli 1
fateme ghareghashi 2
Mostafa Ariankia 3
1 Department of Geography, Faculty of Humanities and Social Sciences, Golestan University, Gorgan, Iran.
2 Department of Geography, Faculty of Humanities and Social Sciences, Golestan University, Gorgan, Iran
3 Department of Human Geography and Planning, Faculty of Geography, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran
10.30488/gps.2026.566936.3883
Abstract
Uneven population distribution, particularly in developing
countries, creates challenges such as inequality in access to
infrastructure and public services, as well as imbalance in
regional development. Alborz Province, located on the outskirts
of the capital and characterized by rapid population growth in
recent years, is considered a suitable case for examining spatial
population changes. Accordingly, this study aims to analyze the
spatio-temporal dynamics of rural population distribution in
Alborz Province over the period 2011 to 2016, using advanced
spatial autocorrelation models. This study is applied in objective
and descriptive-analytical in methodology. The required data
were extracted from the General Population and Housing Census
for the two specified periods and processed in a Geographic
Information System (GIS) environment. For data analysis,
various spatial statistical methods were employed, including the
nearest neighbor index, local spatial autocorrelation, the GetisOrd Gi* index, and kriging interpolation. The findings indicate
that the rural population distribution in the province follows a
clustered and uneven pattern. High-value clusters (hot spots) are
mainly concentrated around the counties of Karaj, Savojbolagh,
Nazarabad, and Eshtehard, while low-value clusters (cold spots)
are dispersed in other areas. Although the intensity of spatial
autocorrelation has somewhat decreased at the macro level, the
enduring spatial stability of major population centers over the
study period indicates continued spatial inequality. This study
emphasizes the need for a place-based approach in future
planning to achieve a more equitable distribution of population
and services in Alborz Province.
Keywords
Alborz Province, Rural Population Distribution, Spatio-Temporal Analysis, Spatial Autocorrelation, Moran&‌‌rsquo
s I, Spatial Statistical Models
Subjects
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Geographical planning of space quarterly journal
Volume 16, Issue 2
Summer 2026
Pages 143-162