Analyzing Spatio-Temporal Variations of Extreme Index of heating and cooling waves in Iran

Document Type : Research Paper


1 ) Department of Physical Geography, Faculty of Geography, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran

2 Department of Geography, University of Zanjan, Zanjan 3879145371, Iran

3 Senior research scientist in Soil Conservation and Watershed Management Research Institute(SCWMRI), AREEO,,Tehran, Iran


Temperature is one of the climate elements that has fluctuated a lot over time. When these fluctuations increase and decrease more than normal and are placed in the upper and lower regions of the statistical distribution, if continued, it can lead to the creation of heating and cooling waves. The purpose of this study is to analyze the temporal and spatial changes in heating and cooling waves in Iran during a period of 50 years. For this purpose, the temperature of 663 synoptic stations from 1962 to 2004 was obtained from the Esfazari database. Then, in order to complete this database, the daily temperature from 2004 to 2011 was obtained from the Meteorological Organization of the country and added to the aforementioned database. In order to perform calculations and draw maps, Matlab, grads and Surfer software have been used. The results of this study showed that the index of cooling waves and heating waves, while having a direct effect on each other, had an increasing trend in most of the area of Iran. The statistical distribution of the index of cooling waves is more heterogeneous than that of the index of heating waves. So that the spatial variation coefficient for cold waves is 84.22%. Also, the index of cooling waves has more spatial variability. The highest common diffraction of the index of heating and cooling waves has been seen in the northwest, east and along the Zagros mountains. Analysis of the indexes trends show that heat waves have intensified in 65.8% of Iran and the intensity of cold waves has decreased in 48.5% of Iran
Extended Abstract
Temperature is one of the major climatic variables, which it has a direct impact on different aspects of human life. It plays an essential role in the growth of crops and is considered a key driver of the biological system(Reicosky et al, 1988). It is associated with several types of extremes, for example, heat and cold waves which caused human societies maximum damage. Past occurrences of heat waves hitherto had significant impacts on several aspects of society. Have increased Mortality and morbidity. Ecosystems can be affected, as well as increased pressure on infrastructures that support society, such as water, transportation, and energy(Dewce, 2016). The long-term change of extreme temperatures has a key role in climatic change. The form of statistical distribution and the variability of mean values and also extreme event indicate a change in the region. It can be a small relative change in the mean as a result of a large change in the probability of extreme occurrence. Also, the variation in temperature data variance is significantly more important than the mean, for assessing the extreme occurrence of climate(Toreti and Desiato, 2008). The average surface temperature has increased the world between 0.56 and 0.92 ° C over the past 100 years(IPCC, 2007). Meanwhile, it was in the Middle East, the average daily temperature increased by 0.4-0.5 ° C in decades(Kostopoulou et al, 2014; Tanarhte et al, 2012). Considering that not many studies have been done in the field of spatio-temporal Variations of the heating and cooling waves thresholds in Iran, in this study, the spatio-temporal Variations of the heating and cooling waves thresholds in Iran during 50 years were examined and analyzed.
The daily temperature from the beginning of the year 21/03/1967 to 19/05/2005 was obtained from the Esfazari database prepared by Dr. Masoudian at the University of Isfahan. In order to increase the time resolution of the mentioned database, the daily temperature of observations from 05/21/2005 to 05/12/2012 has been added to the mentioned database using the same method, and the exact spatial resolution (15 x 15 km) is used as a database. Threshold indices of heating waves are the average numbers between the 95th and 99th percentiles, that is, the extreme hot threshold to the limit of excessively extreme hot. For extreme cool, from the 5th percentile down to zero is used. Of course, a condition was added to these thresholds, which is that these thresholds must be repeated two days in a row. These thresholds were extracted for each day in the 50 years of the study period and used as the original database. In order to analyze the relationship between cooling and heating waves, Pearson's correlation coefficient was used and regression was used to analyze the trend.
Results and discussion
The average of cold waves was 5.26 ° C and for the heat waves is 30.20° C. Generally, if the temperature is upper or lower than this threshold, it is considered as hot or cold temperatures. A comparison of the median, mode, and average of cold waves with heat waves shows that the distribution is more heterogeneous for cold waves and its CV is 84.22%.
In southern Iran, the average threshold heat waves are higher. This situation can be caused by the effects of subtropical high-pressure radiation, low latitude, and proximity to the sea. Though the threshold is higher in these areas, fewer fluctuations and changes are seen in the area. Heights moderate the temperature so they pose a minimum threshold for heat waves i.e. an iso-threshold of 25 ° C is consistent along the Zagros mountain chains, but in the west and east of Zagros Mountains, the threshold of heat waves is increased.
Heat waves have increased in most areas of the country. So nearly 85 percent of the Iran has been an increasing trend, of which 65.8 percent is statistically significant at the 95% confidence level. Still, more areas of the country (60 percent) have a trend between 0.00828 and 0.00161. As can be seen, only 15% of the land area (including the southwest and northwest of the Country) had decreased heat waves. Cold waves, in most parts of the country, have a Positive Trend. However, about 25 percent of the study area's cold waves have a negative trend. they are located in areas higher than Latitude 30°. The largest decline of the wave's trend along the country is highlands. Nowadays, most of the country, has a trend between 0.01494 and 0.00828 ° C, respectively.
Common changes and effects of heat and cold waves had a direct relationship in many parts of the country. It is remarkable common variance in the East reached 55 percent, according to statistical significance. In some areas of the northwest and southwest, which have been impressive heights, the common variance is 40 percent. This common variance in mountains area has been high values. Investigation of heat waves trend shows that 65.8% of Iran significant positive trend and 7.1% significant negative trend. Also, the cold waves trend has indicated a 48.5% significant positive trend and a 10.8% significant negative trend. Climate change and global warming have changed the frequency and severity of temperature extremes. The present study, by examining the number of warm waves, concluded that the warm waves have increased in magnitude in 65.8% of the Iran zone. Also, the study of the cold waves trend showed that 48.5 percent of Iran had a positive trend, which means that the amount of temperature in the cold waves increased In other words, the severity of the cold has been reduced And only 10.8 percent of Iran had a negative cold wave trend And it shows the intensity of these waves is reduced.
There is no funding support.
Authors’ Contribution
The authors contributed equally to the conceptualization and writing of the article. All of the authors approthe contenttent of the manuscript and agreed on all aspects of the work declaration of competing interest none.
Conflict of Interest
The authors declared no conflict of interest.
 We are grateful to all the scientific consultants of this paper.


  1. Alijani, B. (2015). fundamentals of climatology. Tehran: SAMT Publications. [In Persian].
  2. Alijani, B., & Farajzadeh, H. (2015). Trend Analysis of Extreme Temperature Indices in the North West of Iran. Geography and Planning, 19(52), 229-256. [In Persian].
  3. Alijani, B., Najjar-Salih, M., Mahmoudi, P., Rigi Chahi, A.B. (2018). Change analysis of annual minimum and maximum temperatures in Iran. Geographical Research Quarterly, 24 (98), 1-20. [In Persian].
  4. Araghi, A., Mousavi-Baygi, M., & Adamowski, J. (2016). Detection of trends in days with extreme temperatures in Iran from 1961 to 2010. Theoretical and applied climatology, 125, 213-225.
  5. Asade, A., & Masoudiyan, A. (2015). Spatial and Temporal Analysis of Iran's Extreme Warm Days Trend. Environmental Researches, 5(9), 59-72. [In Persian].
  6. Asadi, A. )2012(. Synoptic analysis of extreme thermal in Iran, doctoral dissertation in natural geography, climatology. Supervsor: Seyed Abolfazl Masoudian, Faculty of Geographical Sciences and Planning, University of Isfahan. [In Persian].
  7. Asadi, A., & Masoodian, A. (2014). Regionalization of Iran based on extreme warm temperatures. Journal of the Earth and Space Physics, 40(4), 155-168. [In Persian].
  8. Bartholy, J., & Pongrácz, R. (2007). Regional analysis of extreme temperature and precipitation indices for the Carpathian Basin from 1946 to 2001. Global and Planetary Change, 57, 83 – 95.
  9. Benistona, M., & Stephensonb, D.B. (2004). Extreme climatic events and their evolution under changing climatic conditions. Global and Planetary Change, 44, 1 –9.
  10. Catherine, S., & Grimmond, C.S.B. (2004). Applied climatology: ‘heat waves’. Progress in Physical Geography, 28 (4), 599–606.
  11. Darand, M. )2013(. Synoptic analysis of Iran's Extreme colds. doctoral thesis in climatology, Supervisor: Seyed Abolfazl Masoudian, Faculty of Geographical Sciences and Planning, Isfahan University. [In Persian].
  12. Darand, M., Masoodian, A., Nazaripour, H., & Mansouri Daneshvar, M.R. (2015). Spatial and temporal trend analysis of temperature extremes based on Iranian climatic database (1962–2004). Arab J Geosci, 8, 8469–8480.
  13. Della-Marta, P.M.  & Luterbacher, J. (2007). Summer heat waves over western Europe 1880-2003, their relationship to large-scale forcings and predictability. Climate Dynamics, 29(3-2), 251-275.
  14. Dewce, T.T. (2016). Guidelines on the definition and monitoring of extreme weather and climate events. WMO, 1-61.
  15. Esmaeil Negad, M., Khosravei, M., Aliganei, B., & Masoodeian, S. (2013). Identifying heat waves of Iran. Geography and development, 11(33), 39-54. [In Persian].
  16. Galarneau, T.J., Bosart, L.F., & Aiyyer, A.R. (2008). Closed anticyclones of the subtropics and multitudes: A 54-yr climatology (1950–2003) and three case studies. Synoptic–Dynamic Meteorology and Weather Analysis and Forecasting: A Tribute to Fred Sanders, Meteorological Monographs, 55, 349–392.
  17. Ghavidel Rahimi, Y. (2008). Synoptic analysis extreme temperatures of cold period in the northwestern region of Iran. Ph.D. in Natural Geography, Climatology, Faculty of Geographical Sciences and Planning, University of Isfahan. [In Persian].
  18. Halabian, A. H., Poorshahbazi, J., Soltanian, M. (2017). Evaluation of the seasonal maximum and minimum temperature change of Iran. Geographical Planning of Space, 7(23), 1-10.
  19. IPCC. (2001). Climate change 2001: The scientific basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the third Assessment report of the IPCC [Houghton, J. T. et al. (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press: 881pp.
  20. IPCC. (2007). Climate Change 2007: The physical science basis: Summary for policymakers. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the IPCC.
  21. Kamali, G.A. (2012). Harmful colds to Iran's agriculture in the form of probabilistic criteria of a case study: Tehran. Geographical Research, 16-17(1-4), 149-165. [In Persian].
  22. Kashki, A., Karami, M., Baaghideh, M., & Alimoradi, M. R. (2019). Statistical Analysis of Zabol Heat Waves. Climate Change and Climate Change, 1(1), 40-55. [In Persian].
  23. Katharina, M.A., Gabriel, A.B., Wilfried, R., & Endlicher, A. (2011). Urban and rural mortality rates during heat waves in Berlin and Brandenburg. Germany. Environmental Pollution, 159, 2044-2050.
  24. Kostopoulou, E., Giannakopoulos, C., Hatzaki, M., Karali, A., Hadjinicolaou, P., Lelieveld, J., & Lange, M. A. (2014). Spatio-temporal patterns of recent and future climate extremes in the eastern Mediterranean and Middle East region. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 14(6), 1565-1577.
  25. Kuglitsch, F.G., Toreti, A., Xoplaki, E., Della-Marta, P.M., Luterbacher, J., & Wanner, H. (2009). Homogenization of daily maximum temperature series in the Mediterranean. Journal of Geophysical Research–Atmospheres, 114. D15108.
  26. Kunkel, K.E., Bromirski, P.D., Brooks, H.E., & Cavazos, T. (2008). Observed changes in weather and climate extremes. In: Weather and Climate Extremes in a Changing Climate. Regions of Focus: North America, Hawaii, Caribbean, and U.S. Pacific Islands. [Karl, T.R., G.A. Meehl, D.M. Christopher, S.J. Hassol, A.M. Waple, and W.L. Murray (Eds.)]. A Report by the U.S. Climate Change Science Program and the Subcommittee on Global Change Research. Washington DC: pp. 222.
  27. Liu, X., Yin, Z.Y., Shao, X., & Qin, N. (2006). Temporal trends and variability of daily maximum and minimum, extreme temperature events, and growing season length over the eastern and central Tibetan Plateau during 1961–2003. Journal of Geophysical Research. 111, D19109.
  28. Mahmoudi, P., Khosravi, M., Masoodian, S. A., & Alijani, B. (2016). Studying the Trend of Changes in the Frequency of Days with Frost-pervasive and Semi-pervasive Conditions. Geography and Planning, 19(54), 303-327. [In Persian].
  29. Masoudian, A., & Darand, M. (2011). Synoptic analysis of extreme temperatures in Iran. Iranian Journal of Geography and Development, 22, 165-185. [In Persian].
  30. Masoudian, Sayyed Aboulfazl. (2012). Iran's climate. Mashhad: Sharia Tos Publishing. [In Persian].
  31. Meehl, G.A., & Tebaldi, C. (2004). More intense, more frequent, and longer lasting heat waves in the 21st century. Science, 305(5686), 994-997.
  32. Meehl, G.A., Karl, T., Easterling, D.R., Changnon, S., Pielke, R., & Changnon, D., (2000). An Introduction to trends in extreme weather and climate events: observations, socioeconomic impacts, terrestrial ecological impacts, and model projections. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 81 (3), 413-416.
  33. Meehl, G.A., Tebaldi, C., & Nychka, D. (2004). Changes in frost days in simulations of twenty first century climate. Climate Dynamics Journal, 12, 495-511.
  34. Montazeri, M., & Masoodian, S. A. (2011). Temperature advection patterns analysis of Iran in cold years. Physical Geography Research Quarterly, 42(4), 79-94. [In Persian].
  35. Nasiri, B. (2016). The investigation of summer heat waves in Tehran city. Mediterranean Journal of Social Sciences, 7 (3 S2), 216-222.
  36. Nasrabadi, E., Masoodian, A., & Asakereh, H. (2013). Comparison of gridded precipitation time series data in APHRODITE and Asfazari data bases within Iran’s territory. Atmos Clim Sci, 3, 2-35.
  37. Naumann, G., Russo, S., Formetta, G., Ibarreta, D., Forzieri, G., Girardello, M., & Feyen, L. (2020). Global warming and human impacts of heat and cold extremes in the EU. Crop Pasture Sci.
  38. Panmao, Z., & Xiaohua, P. (2003). Change in extreme temperature and precipitation over Northern China during the second half of the 20th century. Acta Geographica Sinica, 58 (7), 12-23.
  39. Peterson, T.C., Richard, R., Heim, Jr., & Hirsch, R. (2013). Monitoring and understanding changes in heat waves, cold waves, floods, and droughts in the United States. American Meteorological Society, 12, 821-834.
  40. Rahimi, M., & Hejabi, S. (2018). Spatial and temporal analysis of trends in extreme temperature indices in Iran over the period 1960–2014. International Journal of Climatology, 38(1), pp.272-282.
  41. Rahimzadeh, F., Asgari, A., & Fattahi, E. (2009). Variability of extreme temperature and precipitation in Iran during recent decades. Int. J. Climatol, 29, 329–343.
  42. Reicosky, D.C., Winkelman, L.J., Baker, J.M., & Baker, D.G. (1988). Accuracy of hourly air temperatures calculated from daily minima and maxima. Int. Encycl. Educ, 46, 193–209.
  43. Seneviratne, S.I., Nicholls, N., Easterling, D., & Goodess, C.M., (2012). Changes in climate extremes and their impacts on the natural physical environment. In: Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation [Field, C.B., V. Barros, T.F. Stocker, D. Qin, D.J. Dokken, K.L. Ebi, M.D. Mastrandrea, K.J. Mach, G.-K. Plattner, S.K. Allen, M. Tignor, and P.M. Midgley (eds.)]. A Special Report of Working Groups I and II of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, and New York, NY, USA: 109-230.
  44. Tajik, A., & Arbabi Sabzevari, A. (2020). Investigation of Spatial Variations of extreme temperature in Iran. Physical Geography Quarterly, 13(49), 109-124. [In Persian].
  45. Tanarhte, M., Hadjinicolaou, P., & Lelieveld, J. (2012). Intercomparison of temperature and precipitation data sets based on observations in the Mediterranean and the Middle East. Journal Of Geophysical Research, 117, D12102, doi: 10.1029/2011JD017293.
  46. Toreti, A., & Desiato, F. (2008). Changes in temperature extremes over Italy in the last 44 years, Int. J. Climatol, 28, 733–745.
  47. WHO. (2003). the health impacts of 2003 summer heat-waves. Briefing note for the Delegations of the fifty-third session of the WHO (World Health Organization) Regional Committee for Europe: 12 pp.
  48. Wu, G. X., Liu, Y., & Liu, P. (2004). Formation of the Summertime Subtropical Anticyclone. East Asian Monsoon (World Scientific Series on Meteorology of East Asia), Chang, C. P., Ed., World Scientific Publishing Company, 560.
  49. Zarin, A., Mofidi, A. )2019(. Is the summer tropical high pressure over Iran a sign of the Azores tropical high pressure?. The 11th International Congress of Geographers of the Islamic World, 24 to 25 Shahrivar 1390, Shahid Beheshti University. [In Persian].
  50. Zarrin, A., Ghaemi, H., Azadi, M., & Farajzadeh M. (2010). The spatial pattern of summertime subtropical anticyclones over Asia and Africa: A climatological review. International Journal of Climatology. Int. J. Climatol, 30, 159–173.
  51. Zarrin, A., Ghaemi, H., Azadi, M., Mofidi, A., & Mirzaei, E. (2011). The effect of the Zagros Mountains on the formation and maintenance of the Iran Anticyclone using RegCM4. Meteorol Atmos Phys, 112, 91–100.
  52. Zhang, Q., And, Wu., & G, X., (2002). The Bimodality of 100hPa South Asia High and its Relationship to the Climate Anomaly over East Asia in Summer. Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan, 80, 733-744
  53. Zhuguo, M., Congbin, F., Xiaobo, R., & Chi, Y. (2003). Trend of annual extreme temperature and its relationship to regional warming in northern China. Acta Geographica Sinica.
  54. Zolfaghari, H., Zahedi, G., & Sajjadifar, T. (2012). predicting last spring freezing day in West and Northwest of Iran. Geography and Environmental Sustainability, 2(3), 59-74. [In Persian].