Geographical planning of space quarterly journal

Geographical planning of space quarterly journal

Estimation of the Percentage of the Rural Population in Sistan due to the Decrease in Horizontal Visibility Resulting from Dust Storms

Document Type : Research Paper

Authors
1 Member of the Faculty of Geography Department of Payam Noor University of Iran
2 Master of Payam Noor University
Abstract
Today, one of the most essential migrations is migration related to climate change. This has become very important with the revelation of climate crises and damage to agricultural and livestock products, and it has caused the migration of rural to other cities and the reduction of the annual growth rate of the rural population in Sistan province. Therefore, this issue was considered the horizontal visibility caused by dust storms as one of the environmental hazards in Sistan that cause rural to migrate. Moreover, this trend will continue in the coming years. Based on this, the total population of Sistan and the percentage of its rural population in the statistical periods of 1957 to 2016 were obtained from the statistical yearbooks of the National Statistics Portal of Iran. Then, the necessary programming was done using R software and spatio-temporal regression statistical method and spdep, tseries, maptools, and alr3 software packages. The obtained results showed that the amount of rural population in 2018 reached 55.57%, in 2019 reached 54.96%, and in 2020 and 2021, it reached 54.26% and 53.47%, respectively, during the previous years. It is estimated that until 2021, 99% of rural migration will be related to reducing horizontal visibility and its destructive effects, and only 1% will be related to other migration factors. Also, the variable coefficient of the t statistic in the regression model (-2.865) is negative. This issue indicates that rural migration in Sistan will decrease with the reduction of horizontal visibility.
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