Geographical planning of space quarterly journal

Geographical planning of space quarterly journal

Identifying factors affecting urban development with a future research approach: the case study of Beilesavar city

Document Type : Research Paper

Authors
Department of Geography, Faculty of Social Sciences, Payam Noor University, Tehran, Iran
Abstract
Foresight is an interdisciplinary art movement that is characterized by the belief in the power of technology to accelerate the future. In this regard, research was considered with an emphasis on identifying the key factors affecting the future development of Bileh Savar city. This research aimed to identify the drivers of the development of Bileh Savar city. In this research, new methods of future research with an analytical and applied nature and a two-stage Delphi technique have been used. The statistical population was 25 city professors, experts, and senior managers. To collect the required data, a researcher-made open questionnaire tool was used. In the first stage of the Delphi method, open questionnaires with 50 questions in different political, economic, social, and cultural fields were provided to the experts of the city, which led to the general extraction of factors affecting it. In the second stage, the cross-effects analysis matrix was designed and completed by 25 experts, senior experts, and specialists who were knowledgeable about the city's development issues. In the phase of inferring and analyzing the results, the calculations were done by MICMAC software, and the results showed that 16 drivers are directly and indirectly effective for the development of the city, and the driver of water resources and precipitation has the highest score, which is because the city is an agricultural hub in the province. Also, the increase in population and transnational trade due to the proximity to the border and the attraction of domestic and foreign investors are important drivers in the development of the city.
Keywords

Subjects


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