Document Type : Research Paper
Authors
Department of political Geography, Faculty of Geography, Kharazmi University, Tehran, Iran
Abstract
A B S T R A C T
Security, stability, development, and prosperity constitute core priorities of all political systems and are directly and synergistically linked to the availability of water resources. Consequently, the provision and management of water resources represent a fundamental responsibility of governments. Access by political–spatial units to limited freshwater sources has generated numerous structural and political constraints. Inevitably, as access to water resources becomes more restricted, competition and efforts to address this scarcity intensify among political–spatial units. The Gavkhuni Watershed, encompassing the provinces of Isfahan, Chaharmahal and Bakhtiari, Fars, and Yazd in Iran’s central plateau, is currently experiencing a severe water crisis. This ongoing crisis has profoundly affected the interactions and relationships among the political and spatial units within the basin. The present study, applied in nature, seeks to elucidate how the water crisis has shaped interrelations among the political–spatial units of the Gavkhuni Watershed. A descriptive–analytical methodology was adopted. Data were gathered through both library and field methods and analyzed using MICMAC, Scenario Wizard, and Vensim software tools. The findings indicate that among 23 potential situations associated with eight scenarios of high and probable compatibility, those emphasizing hydropolitical tensions as critical to the relationships among the political–spatial units of the Gavkhuni Basin are the most plausible outcomes. Accordingly, the influence of the water crisis on inter-unit relations within the catchment has reached a critical level. The study identifies optimal and integrated water resource management as the most effective strategy to prevent further deterioration of political–spatial relations within the basin.
Extended Abstract
Introduction
The growing imbalance between limited freshwater availability and rising water demand is expected to intensify competition both among nations and between political–spatial units within national boundaries. The Gavkhuni Basin lies within an arid to semi-arid climatic zone in central Iran. Multiple indicators and empirical evidence confirm that the basin is experiencing severe water scarcity. This study investigates the evolving dynamics and emerging challenges associated with this water crisis. It centers on the key question:
What is the most plausible scenario for the manifestation of the water crisis in the relations among the political–spatial units of the Gavkhuni Basin?
Employing a futures research approach, the study identifies the key driving factors influencing the water crisis and its implications for interrelations among the political–spatial units, ultimately formulating the most plausible scenario for how the crisis may reshape these relationships within the Gavkhuni Basin.
Methodology
This study is applied in purpose and employs a descriptive–analytical research design. It integrates both qualitative and quantitative data, collected through library research, fieldwork using an interaction-impact questionnaire, and a multi-stage survey process.
In the initial phase, key variables reflecting the influence of the water crisis on the hydropolitical relations among the political–spatial units of the Gavkhuni Basin were identified through an extensive review of library and documentary sources. Subsequently, MICMAC software was used to determine and classify the most influential driving factors.
In the subsequent stage, multiple potential states were defined for each key factor. Based on these factors and their defined states, a cross-sectional questionnaire was developed and distributed among the study participants. The collected responses were processed using the Scenario Wizard software to identify and analyze compatible and coherent scenarios. Finally, the resulting scenarios were simulated and tested using Vensim software to visualize dynamic interactions and system feedbacks within the basin’s hydropolitical system.
Results and discussion
Key variables influencing the water crisis and shaping the relations among the political–spatial units of the Gavkhuni Watershed were identified as follows: (1) livelihood vulnerability of local residents; (2) public perceptions of the effectiveness of governmental commitments; (3) the extent of habitable living space and rural population density; (4) agricultural production volume; (5) the degree of inter-agency coordination at provincial and basin scales; and (6) citizens’ perceived sense of social security. These key variables provided the foundation for projecting the future dynamics of the research problem.
Based on the futures research analysis, the scenario representing the reflection of the water crisis on the interrelations among the political–spatial units of the Gavkhuni Watershed achieved the highest plausibility score (34.78%) among all possible scenarios.
The conceptual model developed in this study, termed the “Water and Fire” model, metaphorically illustrates the fine balance between life and death, and between prosperity and deprivation, in regions facing acute water scarcity. It provides a framework for optimal and integrated water resource management across the basin. Despite advances in water resource research and policy, planning and management in Iran remain complex and politically contentious, underscoring the urgent need for cooperative governance and basin-scale coordination.
Conclusion
The Gavkhuni Watershed, encompassing a substantial portion of Iran’s central plateau, serves as a focal zone for hydropolitical interactions among the four provinces of Chaharmahal and Bakhtiari, Isfahan, Yazd, and Fars. The Zayandeh Rud River represents the principal shared water source among these political–spatial units. In recent years, the per capita availability of Zayandeh Rud’s water has exhibited a steady and persistent decline, profoundly influencing hydropolitical relations among these provinces.
Among the four provinces, Isfahan, Yazd, and Chaharmahal and Bakhtiari have experienced the highest levels of tension and conflict regarding water allocation. The majority of these disputes are concentrated around Isfahan Province, which has faced recurrent disagreements with other political–spatial units within the Gavkhuni Watershed and neighboring basins over inter-basin water transfers. Residents of Chaharmahal and Bakhtiari Province, located upstream and heavily dependent on agriculture and livestock production, have strongly opposed the planned transfer of water to Isfahan. In contrast, residents of Yazd Province, situated downstream, exhibited less overt conflict but expressed the strongest institutional protests against Isfahan’s water management policies.
Within this context, the study examined how the water crisis is reflected across alternative scenarios concerning the political–spatial relations within the Gavkhuni Watershed. The findings suggest that, under future conditions of intensified water scarcity, hydropolitical relations among the political–spatial units will remain tense and conflict-prone. This research thus serves as a critical warning to policymakers, civic actors, and environmental organizations regarding the region’s structural constraints and severely limited water resources, emphasizing the urgent need for integrated, cooperative, and sustainable water governance.
Funding
There is no funding support.
Authors’ Contribution
Authors contributed equally to the conceptualization and writing of the article. All of the authors approved thecontent of the manuscript and agreed on all aspects of the work declaration of competing interest none.
Conflict of Interest
Authors declared no conflict of interest.
Acknowledgments
The authors of this study would like to thank Kharazmi University and all those who helped us conduct this research.
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