Geographical planning of space quarterly journal

Geographical planning of space quarterly journal

Vulnerability Zoning of Nir County to Earthquake Risk

Document Type : Research extracted From projects

Authors
Sayyad Asghari Saraskanroud
Elnaz Piroozi
Leila Aghayari
Department of Physical Geography, Faculty of Social Sciences, University of Mohaghegh Ardabili, Ardabil, Iran
10.30488/gps.2025.517439.3840
Abstract
Earthquakes rank among the most frequent natural hazards in both Iran and worldwide, inflicting substantial human and economic losses each year. Accordingly, assessing seismic vulnerability and identifying strategies to reduce it constitute pressing research priorities. Against this backdrop, the present study evaluates the earthquake vulnerability of Nir County in Ardabil Province. To achieve this objective, nine criteria were considered as independent variables: slope, elevation (DEM), geology, land use, distance from seismic sources, distance from roads, distance from population centers, distance from rivers, and distance from faults. Digital layers for these factors were first prepared. The criterion maps were standardized using the fuzzy membership function, and their relative weights were determined through the CRITIC method. Subsequently, the ARAS multi-criteria decision-making method was applied to generate a vulnerability zoning map classified into five categories. The results indicate that distance from faults (weight=0.131), distance from earthquake epicenters (0.123), and land use (0.110) were the most influential factors. The analysis further revealed that 365.74 km² and 365.87 km² of the county’s area fall within the very high and high vulnerability classes, respectively. Given the considerable extent of vulnerable zones, relevant authorities must adopt coordinated, expert-led protective measures and integrate them into their planning agendas. Furthermore, the ROC curve analysis yielded an area under the curve (AUC) value of 0.81, confirming the strong predictive accuracy of the ARAS method in identifying and zoning earthquake-prone areas in Nir County
Keywords
Vulnerability Zoning
Earthquake Hazard
Nir County
Multi-Criteria Analysis.

Subjects

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Geographical planning of space quarterly journal
Volume 15, Issue 3
Autumn 2026
Pages 1-19