Geographical planning of space quarterly journal

Geographical planning of space quarterly journal

Forest Fire Hazard Modeling Using Fuzzy Weighted Linear Combination and Network Analysis

Document Type : Research Paper

Authors
negar hamedi 1
Ali Esmaeily 1
hassan faramarzi 2
saeid shabani 3
behrooz mohseni 3
1 Department of Surveying Engineering, Graduate University of Advanced Technology, Mahan, Iran
2 Department of Forestry, Faculty of Natural Resources and Marine Sciences, Tarbiat Modares University of Tehran, Noor, Iran
3 Research Division of Natural Resources, Golestan Agricultural and Natural Resources Research and Education Center, AREEO, Gorgan, Iran
10.30488/gps.2025.460466.3748
Abstract
Forest fires, whether triggered by natural causes or human activities, are regarded as one of the most serious environmental disasters. Accordingly, understanding the dynamic behavior of forest fires and delineating fire hazard zones are essential components of fire management aimed at reducing fire incidence and minimizing forest degradation. This study seeks to identify and map potential forest fire hazard zones in the Lordegan region using the Fuzzy Weighted Linear Combination (FWLC) method in conjunction with the Analytic Network Process (ANP). To achieve this objective, a set of influential factors—including topographic, vegetation, anthropogenic, and climatic variables—for the years 2000 and 2014 were incorporated into the analysis. These variables served as input layers for the modeling process. In the fuzzification phase, the input maps were weighted using the ANP method, and the forest fire hazard map was subsequently generated through the FWLC technique. Additionally, to assess temporal variations in the contributing factors, change detection maps were produced for the 14-year study period. The findings indicated that proximity to residential areas and roads, maximum daily temperature, and the GVMI (Global Vegetation Moisture Index) were the most influential variables according to the ANP weighting results. The predictive models exhibited strong performance, as indicated by an ROC (Receiver Operating Characteristic) value exceeding 0.7. Therefore, the proposed integrated model provides a robust decision-support tool for future forest fire management strategies. The final output—a predictive fire hazard map—offers critical support for the management and conservation of the Zagros forest ecosystems. This map facilitates the identification of high-risk zones, enabling proactive fire prevention, timely firefighting responses, and optimized resource allocation.
Keywords
Forest Destruction
Dynamic
Vegetation Index
Fire Management.

Subjects

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Geographical planning of space quarterly journal
Volume 15, Issue 3
Autumn 2026
Pages 41-58