مجله آمایش جغرافیایی فضا

مجله آمایش جغرافیایی فضا

مدل‌سازی خطر آتش‌سوزی جنگل با استفاده از روش‌های فرآیند تحلیل شبکه‌ای و ترکیب خطی وزنی فازی

نوع مقاله : مقاله علمی پژوهشی

نویسندگان
1 گروه مهندسی نقشه‌برداری، دانشگاه تحصیلات تکمیلی صنعتی و فناوری پیشرفته، ماهان، ایران
2 دانشکده منابع طبیعی و علوم دریایی، دانشگاه تربیت مدرس، نور، ایران
3 بخش تحقیقات منابع طبیعی، مرکز تحقیقات و آموزش کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی استان گلستان، سازمان تحقیقات، آموزش و ترویج کشاورزی، گرگان، ایران
چکیده
آتش‌سوزی جنگل صرف‌نظر از اینکه بر اثر عوامل طبیعی و یا فعالیت‌های انسانی ایجادشده باشد، می‌تواند یک فاجعه محیط زیستی واقعی محسوب گردد. ازاین‌رو، درک رفتار پویایی آتش و تهیه نقشه مناطق خطر آتش‌سوزی جنگل، یکی از جنبه‌های مهم مدیریت آتش، کاهش وقوع آن و جلوگیری از آسیب جنگل محسوب می‌شود. بر این اساس هدف این تحقیق تهیه نقشه مناطق دارای پتانسیل آتش‌سوزی جنگل‌های شهرستان لردگان با استفاده از روش‌های فرآیند تحلیل شبکه‌ای و ترکیب خطی وزنی فازی می‌باشد. بدین منظور نقشه عوامل مؤثر بر آتش‌سوزی از قبیل عوامل توپوگرافی، شاخص‌های پوشش گیاهی، عوامل انسانی و اقلیمی مربوط به سال‌های 2000 و 2014 تهیه و به‌عنوان ورودی‌های مدل انتخاب شدند. پس از فازی‌سازی نقشه‌های ورودی، با استفاده از روش تحلیل شبکه‌ای، معیارها وزن دهی و نقشه خطر آتش‌سوزی با استفاده از روش ترکیب خطی وزنی فازی تهیه گردید. در ادامه نقشه تغییرات عوامل مؤثر بر آتش‌سوزی در بازه زمانی 14 ساله تهیه گردید. نتایج این تحقیق نشان داد عوامل فاصله از مناطق مسکونی و جاده، حداکثر دمای روزانه هوا و شاخص GVMI بیشترین وزن را به خود اختصاص داده‌اند. همچنین دقت مدل ترکیب خطی وزنی فازی با شاخص سطح زیر منحنی بررسی و نتایج حاکی از دقت خوب مدل با مقداری عددی بیشتر از 7/0 بود. یافته‌های این تحقیق در قالب نقشه پیش‌بینی مناطق خطر آتش‌سوزی جنگل‌ها می‌تواند به‌عنوان پشتیبانی حیاتی برای مدیریت اکوسیستم‌های جنگلی زاگرس مورداستفاده قرار گیرد.
کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات


عنوان مقاله English

Forest Fire Hazard Modeling Using Fuzzy Weighted Linear Combination and Network Analysis

نویسندگان English

negar hamedi 1
Ali Esmaeily 1
hassan faramarzi 2
saeid shabani 3
behrooz mohseni 3
1 Department of Surveying Engineering, Graduate University of Advanced Technology, Mahan, Iran
2 Department of Forestry, Faculty of Natural Resources and Marine Sciences, Tarbiat Modares University of Tehran, Noor, Iran
3 Research Division of Natural Resources, Golestan Agricultural and Natural Resources Research and Education Center, AREEO, Gorgan, Iran
چکیده English

Forest fires, whether triggered by natural causes or human activities, are regarded as one of the most serious environmental disasters. Accordingly, understanding the dynamic behavior of forest fires and delineating fire hazard zones are essential components of fire management aimed at reducing fire incidence and minimizing forest degradation. This study seeks to identify and map potential forest fire hazard zones in the Lordegan region using the Fuzzy Weighted Linear Combination (FWLC) method in conjunction with the Analytic Network Process (ANP). To achieve this objective, a set of influential factors—including topographic, vegetation, anthropogenic, and climatic variables—for the years 2000 and 2014 were incorporated into the analysis. These variables served as input layers for the modeling process. In the fuzzification phase, the input maps were weighted using the ANP method, and the forest fire hazard map was subsequently generated through the FWLC technique. Additionally, to assess temporal variations in the contributing factors, change detection maps were produced for the 14-year study period. The findings indicated that proximity to residential areas and roads, maximum daily temperature, and the GVMI (Global Vegetation Moisture Index) were the most influential variables according to the ANP weighting results. The predictive models exhibited strong performance, as indicated by an ROC (Receiver Operating Characteristic) value exceeding 0.7. Therefore, the proposed integrated model provides a robust decision-support tool for future forest fire management strategies. The final output—a predictive fire hazard map—offers critical support for the management and conservation of the Zagros forest ecosystems. This map facilitates the identification of high-risk zones, enabling proactive fire prevention, timely firefighting responses, and optimized resource allocation.

کلیدواژه‌ها English

Forest Destruction
Dynamic
Vegetation Index
Fire Management.
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doi: https://doi.org/10.52547/ifej.8.15.81
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