Abstract

This study aims to investigate the future of sustainable rural development in Marivan County, utilizing a futures studies approach and a mixed-methods research design (qualitative and quantitative). Data were collected through a combination of documentary studies and field surveys, employing Delphi questionnaires, semi-structured interviews, and observation. The statistical population consisted of 24 experts, specialists, and officials involved in the region's development, selected via snowball sampling. The findings from the three-round Delphi technique led to the identification of 43 key drivers influencing the future of sustainable rural development. These drivers were categorized into five main dimensions: economic, social, environmental-physical, managerial-institutional, and trans-regional. Subsequent quantitative analyses revealed that economic drivers and managerial-institutional drivers play the most significant role in steering the system towards instability over the next decade. Conversely, social drivers were found to be the most susceptible to changes in other factors. The final results indicate an uneven spatial distribution of instability across the rural districts of the county. In other words, there is a significant disparity in the level of developmental instability among the districts. The districts of Sarshiv and Golchidar are projected to face very high instability, Komasi high instability, Sarkal moderate instability, and Zrivar and Khavomirabad low instability in the future. This study concludes that the centralized planning system and the inefficiency of macro-level management institutions are the primary reasons propelling the region towards an unsustainable future. It underscores the necessity for policy revision and the enhancement of local governance and rural resilience to achieve sustainable development.resilience to achieve sustainable development.

Keywords: Sustainable Development, Futures Studies, Key Drivers, Rural Areas, Marivan County.