A B S T R A C T
This study aims to investigate the future of sustainable rural development in Marivan County, utilizing a futures studies approach and a mixed-methods research design (qualitative and quantitative). Data were collected through a combination of documentary studies and field surveys, employing Delphi questionnaires, semi-structured interviews, and observation. The statistical population consisted of 24 experts, specialists, and officials involved in the region's development, selected via snowball sampling. The findings from the three-round Delphi technique led to the identification of 43 key drivers influencing the future of sustainable rural development. These drivers were categorized into five main dimensions: economic, social, environmental-physical, managerial-institutional, and trans-regional. Subsequent quantitative analyses revealed that economic drivers and managerial-institutional drivers play the most significant role in steering the system towards instability over the next decade. Conversely, social drivers were found to be the most susceptible to changes in other factors. The final results indicate an uneven spatial distribution of instability across the rural districts of the county. In other words, there is a significant disparity in the level of developmental instability among the districts. The districts of Sarshiv and Golchidar are projected to face very high instability, Komasi high instability, Sarkal moderate instability, and Zrivar and Khavomirabad low instability in the future. This study concludes that the centralized planning system and the inefficiency of macro-level management institutions are the primary reasons propelling the region towards an unsustainable future. It underscores the necessity for policy revision and the enhancement of local governance and rural resilience to achieve sustainable development.
Extended Abstract
Introduction
Sustainable rural development has emerged as one of the most critical objectives of regional and spatial planning, particularly in developing countries where rural areas continue to play a decisive role in economic stability, social cohesion, and territorial balance. Rural regions are not only spaces of production and settlement but also complex socio-spatial systems whose sustainability depends on the interaction of multiple structural, institutional, and environmental factors. In recent decades, increasing economic volatility, institutional fragility, environmental pressures, and spatial inequalities have intensified the vulnerability of rural systems, especially in peripheral and border regions. Border rural areas are structurally more exposed to instability due to their geopolitical sensitivity, security-oriented governance, limited investment opportunities, and weak integration into national development frameworks. These areas often suffer from restricted access to markets, infrastructure deficits, and institutional marginalization, which collectively undermine their long-term sustainability. As a result, rural development in border regions is frequently characterized by persistent poverty, unemployment, out-migration, environmental degradation, and social fragmentation. Marivan County, located in the western border region of Iran, exemplifies these challenges. Despite its advantageous geographical location, abundant natural resources, and cultural diversity, the rural areas of Marivan have faced long-standing obstacles to sustainable development. The county’s rural settlements exhibit significant disparities in economic opportunities, service provision, institutional capacity, and environmental conditions. These disparities have contributed to uneven development outcomes and have reinforced cycles of rural unsustainability across different territorial units. Traditional rural development policies in Iran have largely relied on centralized, sector-based, and short-term planning approaches. Such approaches often assume linear development trajectories and prioritize physical investments over institutional strengthening and local capacity building. Consequently, they have failed to adequately address the systemic and uncertain nature of rural development processes. In many cases, development interventions have produced fragmented outcomes, limited resilience, and increased dependency on external support.
In response to these limitations, futures studies have gained increasing attention as a planning and analytical approach capable of addressing uncertainty, complexity, and long-term structural change. Futures studies focus on identifying key driving forces (drivers) that shape possible development trajectories and on exploring how interactions among these drivers influence future outcomes. Rather than predicting a single future, this approach emphasizes multiple plausible futures and highlights the importance of strategic preparedness and adaptive planning. Moreover, rural development is inherently spatial. The effects of development drivers are unevenly distributed across space, leading to clustered patterns of sustainability and unsustainability. Spatial inequalities, if left unaddressed, can exacerbate regional imbalances and undermine national development objectives. Therefore, integrating spatial analysis with futures-oriented research provides a more comprehensive understanding of rural development dynamics and supports territorially differentiated policy responses. Against this background, the present study aims to analyze the spatial impacts of key drivers influencing the unsustainability of rural development in Marivan County through a futures studies framework. The study seeks to identify the most influential drivers of rural unsustainability, assess their relative importance, and examine their spatial distribution across rural districts. By combining futures studies methods with spatial statistical analysis, the research contributes to a deeper understanding of rural development challenges in border regions and provides evidence-based insights for sustainable and resilient rural planning.


Methodology
This study is applied in terms of purpose and adopts a descriptive–analytical research design. A mixed-methods approach was employed to capture both the qualitative complexity of rural development drivers and their quantitative and spatial manifestations. The methodological framework integrates expert-based futures analysis with multi-criteria decision-making techniques and spatial statistical tools. The first stage of the research involved identifying key drivers influencing the future of sustainable rural development using the Delphi technique. The expert panel consisted of 24 individuals, including academic researchers, rural development specialists, planners, and local administrators with extensive knowledge of Marivan County’s rural context. Experts were selected through purposive and snowball sampling to ensure informed judgment and contextual relevance. The Delphi process consisted of three iterative rounds. In the first round, open-ended questionnaires were used to elicit expert opinions on factors contributing to rural sustainability and unsustainability. The qualitative responses were systematically coded and analyzed to extract an initial list of potential drivers. In the second round, the identified drivers were organized into a structured questionnaire using a five-point Likert scale, allowing experts to assess the relative importance of each driver. In the third round, consensus levels were calculated from response distributions, and drivers with agreement levels exceeding 60% were retained as final drivers. Through this process, 43 drivers influencing the future of rural development were identified. These drivers were conceptually grouped into five main dimensions: economic, social, environmental–physical, managerial–institutional, and supra-regional factors. This classification reflects the multidimensional nature of rural sustainability and facilitates subsequent analytical steps. In the second stage, the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) was applied to determine the relative importance of the identified dimensions and to evaluate the degree of rural unsustainability across different rural districts. Experts completed pairwise comparison matrices to assess the relative significance of each dimension. The calculations were performed using Expert Choice software. The consistency ratio of the judgments was below the acceptable threshold of 0.1, indicating reliable and coherent expert evaluations.
In the final stage, spatial analysis was conducted using Geographic Information Systems (GIS) to examine the territorial distribution of rural unsustainability. Global Moran’s I index was employed to assess spatial autocorrelation and determine whether patterns of unsustainability were clustered, dispersed, or random. Additionally, Hot Spot Analysis (Getis-Ord Gi*) was used to identify statistically significant clusters of high and low unsustainability among rural districts. This integrated methodological approach enabled a comprehensive analysis of both the structural drivers and spatial patterns of rural unsustainability.

Results and discussion
The findings of the study indicate that, according to expert consensus, the current state of rural development in Marivan County is predominantly unsustainable. Furthermore, if existing structural conditions and development trends persist, the future trajectory of rural development in the region is expected to remain fragile and unstable. The results highlight the dominant role of economic and managerial–institutional drivers in shaping rural unsustainability. Among economic drivers, national economic instability, high levels of poverty and unemployment, lack of economic diversification, low productivity of rural economic activities, weak entrepreneurial ecosystems, and limited competitiveness of rural products were identified as the most influential factors. These drivers undermine the economic foundations of rural livelihoods and increase vulnerability to external shocks. The dependence of rural economies on a narrow range of activities further intensifies exposure to market fluctuations and policy changes. Managerial–institutional drivers were found to be equally critical. Key factors in this category include the absence of an integrated, coherent rural development strategy, centralized decision-making processes, inequitable allocation of financial resources, weak local governance structures, and the lack of accountable, responsive institutions at both the local and regional levels. Additionally, the security-oriented management of border areas was identified as a constraint that limits economic opportunities and restricts local initiative. These institutional shortcomings reduce the effectiveness of development interventions and hinder the mobilization of endogenous development potentials.
Social and environmental–physical drivers were observed to be more strongly influenced by economic and institutional conditions rather than acting as primary causal forces. Increased rural out-migration, erosion of social capital, declining levels of trust and participation, and reduced psychological security were identified as social consequences of persistent economic hardship and institutional weakness. Similarly, unsustainable exploitation of natural resources, land degradation, and environmental vulnerability were linked to short-term survival strategies adopted under conditions of economic and institutional stress. The AHP results demonstrate that economic factors exert the greatest influence on rural unsustainability, with a relative weight of 0.392, followed closely by managerial–institutional factors with a weight of 0.340. Social, environmental–physical, and supra-regional dimensions received comparatively lower weights, indicating their dependent and reinforcing roles within the overall system of rural unsustainability. Spatial analysis revealed significant territorial disparities in the distribution of rural unsustainability across Marivan County. The Global Moran’s I index confirmed the presence of positive and statistically significant spatial autocorrelation, indicating that high and low levels of unsustainability tend to cluster geographically. Hot Spot Analysis further identified distinct spatial patterns. Sarshiv and Golchedar rural districts emerged as high–high clusters characterized by very high levels of unsustainability. Komasi district was identified as highly unsustainable, while Sarkal district was moderate. In contrast, Zrivar and Khavomirabad districts formed low-unsustainability clusters. These spatial patterns reflect unequal access to economic opportunities, infrastructure, public services, and institutional support across rural districts. They also underscore the importance of adopting spatially differentiated development strategies rather than uniform policy interventions.

Conclusion
The results of this study demonstrate that rural unsustainability in Marivan County is not a random or isolated phenomenon but rather the outcome of structural interactions between economic and managerial–institutional drivers operating within a context of spatial inequality. Centralized planning systems, weak local governance, and limited utilization of endogenous development capacities have collectively pushed rural areas toward an unsustainable development trajectory. The findings emphasize that achieving sustainable rural development requires fundamental structural reforms rather than fragmented or short-term interventions. Strengthening local institutions, enhancing participatory governance, promoting economic diversification, improving market access, and reducing territorial inequalities are essential prerequisites for sustainability. Without addressing these underlying drivers, development policies are unlikely to yield resilient, long-lasting outcomes. From a methodological perspective, integrating futures studies with spatial analysis proved an effective approach for understanding the complexity and uncertainty inherent in rural development systems. Identifying key drivers and examining their spatial impacts enables policymakers and planners to anticipate future risks, prioritize intervention areas, and design adaptive and territorially sensitive development strategies. In conclusion, the study highlights the need to adopt futures-oriented, spatially informed, and institutionally grounded approaches to rural development planning, particularly in border regions facing heightened vulnerability and uncertainty. Such approaches can support the transition of rural areas, such as those in Marivan County, toward long-term, more sustainable, resilient, and equitable development pathways.

Funding
There is no funding support.

Authors’ Contribution
Authors contributed equally to the conceptualization and writing of the article. All of the authors approved thecontent of the manuscript and agreed on all aspects of the work declaration of competing interest none.

Conflict of Interest
Authors declared no conflict of interest.

Acknowledgments
We are grateful to all the scientific consultants of this paper.