Uneven population distribution, particularly in developing countries, is considered one of the fundamental challenges of spatial planning and land-use management. This phenomenon leads to consequences such as inequality in access to infrastructure and public services, excessive population concentration in certain areas, and the persistence of regional development imbalances. Alborz Province, due to its proximity to the Tehran metropolitan area and its experience of rapid population growth in recent decades, represents a prominent case for examining the spatial and temporal dynamics of rural population distribution. Accordingly, the main objective of this study is to analyze the spatio-temporal dynamics of rural population distribution in Alborz Province during the period 2006–2016 using advanced spatial autocorrelation models. This research is applied in purpose and descriptive–analytical in methodology. The required data were extracted from the national population and housing censuses conducted in the three aforementioned periods and, after standardization, were processed within a Geographic Information System (GIS) environment. To analyze spatial population patterns, various spatial statistical techniques were employed, including the Average Nearest Neighbor index, Global and Local Moran’s I (LISA), Hot Spot analysis, and Kriging interpolation. The results indicate that the distribution of the rural population in Alborz Province follows a clustered, uneven, and non-random pattern. High-value clusters (hot spots) are mainly concentrated around the counties of Karaj, Savojbolagh, Nazarabad, and Eshtehard, while low-population clusters (cold spots) are dispersed across other parts of the province. Although the intensity of spatial autocorrelation at the macro scale has slightly decreased over the study period, the spatial persistence of the main population centers demonstrates the continuation of spatial inequality within the province. Ultimately, the findings emphasize the necessity of adopting a place-based and spatially sensitive approach in future planning policies in order to achieve a more equitable distribution of population and facilities across Alborz Province.