Urban growth in the cities of southern Iraq has led to extensive changes in the spatial pattern of land use and the intensification of associated challenges. This study aims to analyze the spatial pattern of urban land use in Nasiriyah and assess its change trends trajectory. This applied study adopted a descriptive–analytical mixed-methods approach, integrating remote sensing, geographic information systems, and spatial modeling. The data comprise Landsat satellite imagery from 1992, 2007, and 2022, along with demographic, economic, and infrastructural data. To analyze spatial patterns, Moran's I, Shannon entropy, and the Gini coefficient were employed, while CA-Markov and ANN-CA models were used to predict upcoming changes. The findings revealed that the urban land area increased from 12.6 km² in 1992 to 61.5 km² in 2022, representing a growth of 388%. Concurrently, vegetated lands and water bodies decreased by 35.5 km² and 10 km², respectively. The results of Moran's I indicated a strong concentration of residential and commercial land uses in the city's central core and an uneven distribution of service-oriented land uses. Furthermore, the relative entropy value of 0.76 indicates horizontal expansion and a relatively high degree of urban sprawl. The spatial justice analysis, with a Gini coefficient of 0.54, revealed significant inequality in the distribution of urban services. CA-Markov model projections exhibited that, if the current trend continues, urban land area will reach 122.4 km² by 2052. The sustainable development scenario - focusing on green space, education, and health services - was the most suitable spatial pattern for Nasiriyah.